On the question of Taiwan, there is also cause for concern. Once certain forces have been unleashed within a society, in the political, economic, and media spheres, it is very difficult to go back.” But then things have been happening, and this is symptomatic of a relationship with a lot of friction. “Before the balloon incident, both governments had shown a willingness to contain tensions. In the former, “the most likely development is that the competition, rivalry, will probably intensify and broaden in scope,” says Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific program at Chatham House think tank. In both areas, there are troubling signs. The second is focused on the question of Taiwan, the major source of friction between the U.S. One is a broader concern about the deteriorating relationship between the two powers. This concern is present in nearly all reports, which warn that it would be a serious mistake not to take it into account when making political and economic assessments. The experts who spoke to EL PAÍS for this report, in addition to the many studies on the issue, agree on one thing: a military conflict involving the two powers is not likely in the short- and medium-term, but the risk exists and is rising ― especially the possibility of accidental escalation given the tension, mistrust and poor communication between the two powers. So, is there a real risk that this negative spiral will descend into war? Could it even happen in this decade, as some experts have warned?
But instead, it has given way to fierce competition - a rivalry that is causing alarm as it appears to move towards confrontation. At the beginning of the century, there was hope that the strengthening of commercial ties between the two countries would lead to positive relations. The relationship between the world’s two great powers, the United States and China, is in a dismal state, and it is getting worse. Zhang Youxia (center) is sworn in as new vice president of the Central Military Commission during National People's Congress in Beijing.
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